OBSERVATIONS-BASED COMPUTATIONAL ANALYTICS ON LOCAL CLIMATE DYNAMICS. PART 3: FORECASTING
Keywords:Nonlinear dynamics forecasting, HDS-model, seasonal forecast, bifurcation analysis, likely periodicity, annual temperature variation, annual warming-cooling cycle, temperature extreme, local climate changes.
AbstractComputational decision making is discussed in application to seasonal temperature forecasts taking into account inevitable nonlinear nature of local climate systems and deficiency of data on reliable observations. We focus on temperature extremes in terms of daily means and first involve the alternative conceptual model of local climate dynamics (the model of hysteresis regulation with double synchronization, so-called HDS-model) into such analytics. Recent years the HDS-model is describing successfully abnormal interannual temperature variability, on the basis of which it becomes potentially possible to extend forecasts of local daily means up to more than 1 year in future. In this connection the novel method of bifurcation traps is proposed, realized and tested. Results of processing the time series of temperature observations on daily mean surface air temperature illustrate peculiarities of this method in comparison with the traditional viewpoint on the forecasts. We believe that the discussion could be interesting in science and practice in order to increase the confidence of estimations on coming climate changes.
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